On paper, Kirkland firmed up in September 2026. In Northwest Multiple Listing Service map area 560, which covers Kirkland and Bridle Trails, closed sales rose 23 percent from September 2025, from 78 to 96. Months of inventory fell from 5.10 in August to 3.99 in September.
Both of those numbers are built on closings, and closings follow contracts written weeks earlier, many of them in August. The figure that shows what buyers did in September is pending sales, and it went the other way. Area 560 had 77 new contracts in September 2026, down from 96 a year earlier, a 20 percent drop. Over the same period active listings rose 26 percent, to 383. If you're comparing Kirkland with other Eastside areas this fall, you need to know which of those numbers tells you about the market now. The tighter reading mostly reflects August's activity showing up late.
The August surge that made September look busy
Closed sales count deals that finished escrow during the month. A home that goes under contract one month often closes the next, so September's closings likely included many August contracts. August was an unusual month for Kirkland/Bridle Trails. Pending sales there rose to 111 in August 2026, up 35 percent from 82 a year earlier. Region-wide contracts were falling at the time. Across all eight NWMLS Eastside map areas combined, August pendings were down about 5 percent year over year.
September's jump to 96 closings fits that August surge, though the monthly reports count totals and don't track individual deals. Here is area 560 over three months, residential and condo combined:
| Area 560, Kirkland/Bridle Trails | July 2026 | August 2026 | September 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active listings | 407 | 367 | 383 |
| Pending sales | 81 | 111 | 77 |
| Change in pendings vs. prior year | −23.6% | +35.4% | −19.8% |
| Closed sales | 86 | 72 | 96 |
| Months of inventory | 4.73 | 5.10 | 3.99 |
The 35 percent jump in August stands out. July pendings were down year over year, and so were September's. August was a single strong month between two weak ones.
Why the inventory figure dropped in September
Divide each month's active listings by its closed sales and you get NWMLS's months-of-inventory figure. In September 2026, 383 active listings divided by 96 closings gives 3.99. In August, 367 divided by 72 gives 5.10.
Because closings sit in the denominator, the measure reflects deals agreed weeks earlier. Active listings actually rose from August to September. The figure fell because closings jumped. Run the same division with September's 77 new contracts and you get close to five months of supply. That is roughly the August reading, and it's a better measure of competition for a listing going live today.
This matters if you're trying to judge how much room you have on price. A buyer who sees 3.99 months may assume Kirkland is tighter than the rest of the Eastside, where the combined figure was 4.74 in September. Measured by new contracts, the gap mostly disappears.
What changed for buyers in September
Mortgage rates rose through the month. NWMLS, citing Freddie Mac, reported that the average 30-year fixed rate went from 6.71 percent on September 3 to 7.03 percent on September 24, then to 7.28 percent in the first week of October. As of October 29, Freddie Mac's weekly survey had it at 7.24 percent.
Kirkland's September contract numbers match what happened across the region. In its September market report, NWMLS said pending sales across its service area fell 15.1 percent, the sharpest year-over-year drop of 2026. Active listings reached their highest level since September 2014. For every 100 new listings, buyers went under contract on about 62 homes, down from about 80 a year earlier.
Prices have held up better than activity. In that same NWMLS report, Steven Bourassa, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research, put it this way:
"Prices tend to rise quickly in a strong market but can be slower to fall when conditions weaken, in part because sellers may have the flexibility to wait rather than accept a lower price."
The Windermere Q3 2026 report shows homes taking longer to sell. Across King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap counties, single-family active listings in September were 28 percent above a year earlier. Average days on market rose from 29 in June to 38 in September. The report noted that with more listings to choose from, sellers face more pressure to price and present their homes competitively.
North of Totem Lake, there was no August surge
Area 560 had one strong month. Area 600 didn't have any. NWMLS groups Juanita with Woodinville in that map area, so it isn't a Kirkland-only number, but it's the closest available read on the north side of the city. Its pending sales fell year over year in all three months, and the declines got bigger each time:
- July 2026: 143 pendings, down 6.5 percent, with 4.11 months of inventory.
- August 2026: 146 pendings, down 10.4 percent, with 4.74 months.
- September 2026: 135 pendings, down 16.7 percent, with 5.49 months, while active listings rose 35.7 percent to 631.
Area 600's months of inventory rose steadily, with no single-month swings, so it's the clearer trend of the two areas. Closings there fell 17.9 percent in September, which is what you'd expect after a summer of declining contracts. If you're deciding between Juanita/Woodinville and the Kirkland/Bridle Trails side, the north end has looked like a buyer's market for longer. Area 560 has been heading the same way. Its August surge just hid that for a month.
The median price is too noisy to read month to month
Kirkland's headline medians are unreliable at this volume. Area 560's residential-only median was $1,995,000 in July 2026, $1,560,000 in August and $1,900,000 in September. The September figure rests on 61 closed homes. The "17 percent decline" from $2,300,000 a year earlier compares two different groups of houses, mostly in different streets and price brackets.
Condo figures are even noisier. In September 2026, area 560's condo median of $720,000 was down 37.9 percent year over year, based on 35 closings. Area 600's condo median of $535,000 was down 46.5 percent, based on 22 closings compared with 43 a year earlier. Swings that large tell you which units happened to sell that month. They don't mean values fell by a third. The condo numbers that do reflect demand are activity numbers. Area 600 condos had 7.45 months of inventory and pendings down 55 percent. Across King County, condos had 7.05 months of inventory in September, and closed sales fell 24.1 percent.
A November and December timeline
If September's slower contract pace carries through, the next two NWMLS closing reports will show it.
- First week of each month: NWMLS publishes its monthly market snapshot with map-area breakouts. Check pending sales for areas 560 and 600 before you look at the median. The September snapshot came out October 6.
- Buyers touring now: Find out how long a listing has been on the market and whether comparable homes nearby have gone pending. Average market time in the four-county region reached 38 days in September, so a home that has been listed through October may have more room to negotiate than the 3.99 figure suggests.
- Sellers listing before the holidays: Assume you're competing against roughly five months of supply, not four. Kirkland/Bridle Trails had 383 active listings at the end of September. Price against the homes still on the market, not just against summer closings.
- Late December: November's contract count will appear in the early-January report. It will show whether September's pending decline continued or was a one-month dip like July's.
Quick answers
Is area 560 the same as the City of Kirkland? No. NWMLS labels area 560 as Kirkland/Bridle Trails and area 600 as Juanita/Woodinville, so neither matches the city limits exactly.
Did Kirkland home prices drop 17 percent? The September 2026 residential median in area 560 was 17.4 percent below September 2025. With 61 sales and a median that moved by more than $400,000 between July and August, that figure mostly reflects which homes sold, not a market-wide price cut.
Why did closings go up while contracts went down? Closings trail contracts by weeks, and August pendings in area 560 were up 35 percent, which fits September's jump in closings. September's pendings show conditions after rates rose above 7 percent.
When the October numbers come out, the Tarek Moghrabi Realty Group can go through areas 560 and 600 contract by contract with you and show what they mean for a specific listing or offer this winter. Tarek Moghrabi Realty Group works this kind of data into every pricing and offer conversation. Let's find a time to chat.
